A General Equilibrium Model and China’s Empirical Analysis of Export Tax Rebate,Trade Surplus and Foreign Exchange Reserve

本文构建了一个简单的大国开放经济一般均衡模型,从理论上探讨了外汇储备从贸易盈余时的短期均衡到贸易平衡时的长期均衡的动态变化过程,并在此基础上量化分析了降低出口退税率对长期均衡时的外汇储备的影响。研究表明,降低出口退税率在短期内对减少贸易盈余和控制外汇储备增量有一定的帮助,但长期来看则与出口产品的价格弹性密切相关,只有降低那些价格弹性较大的产品的出口退税率,才能够有效地减少长期均衡时的外汇储备,否则可能产生适得其反的效果。中国数据的实证研究支持了理论模型的结论。由于中国的出口产品总体缺乏价格弹性,因此,近年来实行的一系列出口退税政策改革在长期内使国家外汇储备出现了一定程度的增加。本文最后提出了相关的政策建议。In this paper，a simple large-country open economic general equilibrium model is built to study the dynamic change process of foreign exchange reserve from short-run equilibrium of trade surplus to long-run equilibrium of trade balance，on the basis of which the effect of decreasing the export tax rebate on the long-run stock of foreign exchange reserves is quantitatively analyzed． Research finds that decreasing the export tax rebate is helpful to reduce the trade surplus and the increments of foreign exchange reserves in the short term，but the long-run effectiveness is closely related to the price elasticity of the exports． Only by decreasing the export tax rebate rate of commodity with price-elasticity can the long-run stock of foreign exchange reserves be effectively lowered compared with the time before decrease． Otherwise，it may has counterproductive results． The conclusions of the theoretical model are well supported by the empirical analysis of Chinese data． Because of the inelasticity of China's export products，China's recent export tax rebate policy reform has increased the stock of foreign exchange reserves to some extent in the long term． Hereby，some recommendations are proposed for China's policy choice