A methodogy for air route planning: the case NAP - NYC

The entrance in service of wide body aircraft at the beginning of the 70's and the effect of the air transport liberalization are probably the main reasons for the increase of air traffic. The interest of airlines and airport management come up in this context with the aim of planning new air routes. The analysis of the demand of the existing flights, through the use of mathematical models, represents the initial stage of a planning process. Many researches have been developed in this field. In the present paper the convenience of direct air links, without intermediary landings between Naples and New York has been examined. The technique followed is that of simulating the choice behaviour of the passengers through the use of a Logit Model. As to the qualifications characterizing each available alternative we have developed 3 different hypothesis. In the first we have considered: the time of transportation, the fare, the frequency and a variable concerning the quality of the service offered. In the second hypotheses the transporta¬tion time and the frequency only have been taken into account. Finally in the third, we have considered a change in the fourth variable, believing it to be necessary to simulate the probability that a passenger might not find seats available on an certain journey. The next phase concerned the model calibration on the existing situation of the air link between Naples and New York, determining the capacity of the mathematical model in reproducing the present situation. Then, we have assumed the existence of the direct link between Naples and New York through the alternative of a true journey and a hypothetical one, obtaining the flows on all the journeys of the network. It has been showed that the alternative of direct transportation without intermediary landings would be the most attended one. However, the profitability for the airline under determined fare and frequency hypotheses should be expected as from 2004