Quantitative hazard assessment of phreatomagmatic eruptions at Vulcano (Aeolian Islands, Southern Italy) as obtained by combining stratigraphy, event statistics and physical modelling

The detailed analysis of stratigraphy allowed the reconstruction of the complex volcanic history of La Fossa di Vulcano. An eruptive activity mainly driven by superficial phreatomagmatic explosions emerged. A statistical analysis of the pyroclastic Successions led to the identification of dilute pyroclastic density currents (base surges) as the most recurrent events, followed by fallout of dense ballistic blocks. The scale of events is related to the amount of magma involved in each explosion. Events involving about 1 millioncm3 of magma occurred during recent eruptions. They led to the formation of hundreds of meters thick dilute pyroclastic density currents, moving down the volcano slope at velocities exceeding 50 m/s. The dispersion of density currents affected the whole Vulcano Porto area, the Vulcanello area. They also overrode the Fossa Caldera's rim, spreading over the Piano area. For the aim of hazard assessment, deposits from La Fossa Cone and La Fossa Caldera were studied in detail, to depict the eruptive scenarios at short-term and at long-term. By means of physical models that make use of deposit particle features, the impact parameters have been calculated. They are dynamic pressure and particle volumetric concentration of density currents, and impact energy of ballistic blocks. A quantitative hazard map, based on these impact parameters, is presented. It could be useful for territory planning and for the calculation of the expected damage