Variability of kinematic source parameters and its implication on the choice of the design scenario

Near-fault seismic recordings for recent earthquakes (Chi Chi earthquake, 1999; Parkfield earthquake, 2004) show the high spatial heterogeneity of ground motion. This variability is controlled by fault geometry, rupture complexity, and also by wave propagation and site effects. Nowadays, the number of available records in near-source region is still not enough to infer a robust parameterization of the ground motion and to retrieve multi-parametric predictive equations valid at close distances from the fault. The use of a synthetic approach may help to overcome this limitation and to study the strong ground motion variability. In this paper we focus on ground-motion dependence on different earthquakes breaking the same fault, as it has been rarely recorded by instruments. We model seismic scenarios from different rupture models of a fault similar to the 1980 Irpinia, Italy, earthquake source (Mw 6.9). A discrete wavenumber-finite element technique is used to compute full-wave displacement and velocity time series in the low-frequency band (up to 2 Hz). We investigate the variability of the ground motion as a function of different source parameters (rupture velocity, slip distribution, nucleation point, source time function), whose values depend on the state of knowledge of the physical model driving the process. The probability density functions of the simulated ground motion parameters, such as displacement response spectrum (SD) and peak ground velocity (PGV), have been used to identify particular scenarios that match specific engineering requests