A geologic contribution to the evaluation of the seismic potential of the Kahrizak fault (Tehran, Iran)

In this paper we present the results of preliminary geomorphic and trenching investigations along the Kahrizak fault. This fault is located south of the highly populated metropolis of Tehran and represents one of the main structures in the area containing important seismic potential. The Kahrizak fault has a very clear expression at the surface where it forms a prominent 35-km-long, 15-m-high scarp on Holocene alluvial deposits. The fault strikes N70°-80°W and dips to the north. Movement is prevalently right-lateral with the northern side of the fault up. Trench excavations exposed a sequence of weathered, massive, alluvial deposits which are dated, by means of radiometric methods, to the Holocene. In the trenches the sequence is intensely deformed by north-dipping, high- and low-angle faults within a 30-m-wide zone. On the basis of stratigraphic and structural relations, some evidence for individual Holocene earthquakes is found; however, we were not able to reconstruct the seismic history of the fault nor to evaluate the size of deformation produced by each event. Because of the possible ~10 m offset of ancient linear hydraulic artifacts (qanáts), that cross the fault, we hypothesize that the most recent event may have occurred in historical times (more recent than 5000 yr B.P.) and it may be one of those reported in this area by the current catalogues of seismicity. Based on these preliminary investigations we estimate an elapsed time between 5000 and 800 years, a maximum slip per event dmax of ~10 m, a minimum Holocene vertical slip rate of ~1 mm/yr versus a horizontal slip rate of ~3.5 mm/yr, a maximum of ~3000 years for the average recurrence time, and an expected Mw = 7.0 to 7.4. These can be considered as a first-hand reference for the activity on this fault