MODELLING AND EVALUATION OF THE DIFFUSION OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES: EXISTING MODELS, RESULTS AND PROPOSAL FOR A NEW MODEL

In this paper we review the available methods, models and results about the diffusion of electric vehicles and the evaluation of related policy. We show that existing models often relate to contexts that are not relevant for the design of policies that could take place in Europe. We also find that many models rely on exogenous diffusion assumption and are not intended to simulate the effects of alternative policy packages, which can significantly limit their scope. Moreover we find that only a few of the studies presenting themselves as costs-benefit analysis really perform what they claim. We also draw some conclusions on the features of models that would be needed to derive recommendations relevant in the European policy framework