FORECASTING RELIABILITY OF MOTOR TRANSPORT VEHICLES IN NORTH'S CONDITIONS

The aim is to develop the mathematical model for reliability forecasting of the motor transport vehicles taking hidden periodicity of arising failures in the assemblies and parts of the vehicles operated on the North. The data bank about failures of the equipment operated in the cold zone has been created. The statistical information gives a possibility to perform the analysis of the operation reliability in the motor transport vehicles limiting the equipment reliability. The information capacity constitutes about 16 Mbytes. The methods on the processing of the statistical data about real equipment operation by means of introducing new probabilistic-statistical structure of the chronograms taking the hidden periodicity of arising failures into consideration have been developed on base of the cosiner-analysis. The software package on the mathematical processing of the equipment failures and forecasting of its reliability taking rhythmological structure into consideration has been developed. The good agreement of the results with actual data has been shown on base of the retrospective analysis. The work results have been introduced at the Lena Motor Depot "Yakutalmaz"Available from VNTIC / VNTIC - Scientific & Technical Information Centre of RussiaSIGLERURussian Federatio