Evaluating the direct and indirect effects of a conditional income support program : the case of Progresa

This thesis contributes in five different areas to t the evaluation of poverty alleviation programs, as well as to the migration literature, thirst, it examines tne existence of direct and indirect effects of a poverty program on migration related outcomes in rural communities in Mexico. It uses experimental and non-experimental data and four different sub-samples from the same data source to estimate the effects. Second, it presents evidence of anticipation effects of the program that invalidate the use of the experimental control group as a proper counterfactual to estimate the effects of the program. Third, it finds a decrease in international migration and finds evidence of heterogenous effects of the program that vary with a poverty index. Fourth, it presents evidence of crowding out effects on international remittances due to an exogenous transfer. Fifth, it finds a decrease in child labour among treated households and limited evidence or an increase among untreated households.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo