Stochastic epidemic models for emerging diseases incorporating household structure and contact tracing

In this thesis, three stochastic epidemic models for intervention for emerging diseases are considered. The models are variants of real-time, responsive intervention, based upon observing diagnosed cases and targeting intervention towards individuals they have infected or are likely to have infected, be they housemates or named contacts. These models are: (i) a local tracing model for a disease spreading amongst a community of households, wherein intervention (vaccination and/or isolation) is directed towards housemates of diagnosed individuals, (ii) a contact tracing model for a disease spreading amongst a homogeneously-mixing population, with isolation of traced contacts of a diagnosed individual, (iii) a local tracing and contact tracing model for a disease spreading amongst a community of households, with intervention directed towards housemates of both diagnosed and traced individuals. These are quantified by deriving threshold parameters that determine whether the disease will infect a few individuals or a sizeable proportion of the population, as well as probabilities for such events occurring.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo