Archaeological predictive modelling of late Anglo-Saxon settlement in East Anglia

This thesis is primarily about archaeological predictive modelling and its possible application as a tool for cultural heritage management in the UK. The research is focused on four main questions using East Anglia during the late Anglo-Saxon period as a case study: what would be the best way of developing an archaeological predictive model; how would such a model compare with other models from around the world; how would archaeological predictive models compare with the existing system of cultural heritage management in the UK; and what would be the implications of employing the technique in the UK? . Published reports of other archaeological predictive models are examined in order to determine what lessons can be learnt, and what techniques might be appropriate for predictive modelling in East Anglia, given the terrain and the character of the archaeological data available. The thesis argues that inductive techniques, using binary logistic regression analysis, are the optimum choice for the modelling process. However, due to statistical problems of modelling across modern administration boundaries, it was decided to concentrate on the county of Norfolk alone. The predictive models produced for this county correctly predicted between 22% and 32% above chance. These results have been verified and are roughly comparable with other archaeological predictive models, taking into account issues such as terrain, available data, etc. The cultural heritage management systems of countries that incorporate archaeological predictive modelling were investigated to determine how well those systems worked, what the legal aspects were, how these models were regulated, how much they cost and how they compare with the current system of heritage management in the UK. Archaeological predictive modelling works well in certain circumstances and can save time and money because, as it predicts archaeological data, archaeological investigation can be targeted to specific areas. For example, within the UK it is envisaged that archaeological predictive modelling could be a viable technique in advance of mineral extraction, new pipelines, road and rail schemes, etc.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo