Using GIS and spatial modelling for retail planning and economic impact assessment: tha case of Silverburn in Glasgow

Retail impact assessment (RIA) remains a crucial part of the planning process. RIA is a common methodology employed by local authorities in the UK to determine the impacts of new shopping centre developments on existing town and city centres. For any new retail development it is important that planners understand how much revenue will be deflected from existing retailers and hence what the longer term impacts on local businesses will be. In the UK, initial approaches utilised retail modelling techniques such as retail gravity models, the most notable example being the Haydock study in 1964. However, as Guy (1991) notes, there was widespread opposition to increasing quantification in planning and the use of mathematical models in the late 1960s and early 1970s, as model assumptions were increasingly questioned and different agencies brought different model results to the enquiries. In the 1980s, the Department of the Environment advised against the use of mathematical models in impact studies. However, RIA has continued since the 1980s using alternative but still largely quantitative approaches. The aim of this paper is to first provide a critical examination of current RIA techniques, particularly from a UK perspective. However, the bulk of the thesis will discuss a number of issues that need to be resolved if spatial interaction models are to see a revival in public sector planning applications. The case study is Silverburn, a new major out-of-town shopping centre opened in 2007 south of Glasgow. The potential impact of Silverburn on existing centres is examined based on two approaches: the Step-by-step, RIA approach and the modem disaggregate spatial interaction models (SIMs). The strengths and weaknesses of both approaches are explored and recommendations are made as to the use of quantitative methods in the future.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo