Beyond Turing: The response of patterned ecosystems to environmental change

Spatially periodic patterns can be observed in a variety of ecosystems. Model studies revealed that patterned ecosystems may respond in a nonlinear way to environmental change, meaning that gradual changes result in rapid degradation. We analyze this response through stability analysis of patterned states of an arid ecosystem model. This analysis goes one step further than the frequently applied Turing analysis, which only considers stability of uniform states. We found that patterned arid ecosystems systematically respond in two ways to changes in rainfall: (1) by changing vegetation patch biomass or (2) by adapting pattern wavelength. Minor adaptations of pattern wavelength are constrained to conditions of slow change within a high rainfall regime, and high levels of stochastic variation in biomass (noise). Major changes in pattern wavelength occur under conditions of either low rainfall, rapid change or low levels of noise. Such conditions facilitate strong interactions between vegetation patches, which can trigger a sudden loss of half the patches or a transition to a degraded bare state. These results highlight that ecosystem responses may critically depend on rates, rather than magnitudes, of environmental change. Our study shows how models can increase our understanding of these dynamics, provided that analyses go beyond the conventional Turing analysis