Alcohol consumption and symptoms as predictors for relapse of DSM-5 alcohol use disorder.

Background: Alcohol consumption levels and alcohol use disorder (AUD) symptoms may serve as easily quantifiable markers for AUD relapse after remission and might help prevention workers identify at-risk individuals. We investigated the predictive value of alcohol consumption and AUD symptoms on relapse. Methods: Data are from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study-2 (NEMESIS-2). We selected 506 people in >= 12-month DSM-5 AUD remission at baseline and assessed their status at 3-year follow-up. AUD symptoms and drinking patterns were assessed using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0. Time since remission was assessed retrospectively at baseline and ranged from 1 to 48 years. Predictors for relapse were examined using Cox regression analysis. Results: Cumulative AUD relapse rate was 5.6% at 5 years, 9.1% at 10 years and 12.0% at 20 years. Relapse was predicted by both medium (15-28/22-42 drinks weekly for women/men) and high (>= 29/43) past alcohol intake, 6+ lifetime AUD symptoms, 'impaired control over use', and at-risk (>= 8/15) current intake. The risk of relapse.was especially high when medium or high past intake or 6+ lifetime symptoms coincided with current at-risk drinking. Conclusions: Only a minority of people in DSM-5 AUD remission relapsed, but the risk of relapse increased substantially with the presence of at least one of the risk factors. Moreover, at-risk current drinking coupled with other risk factors substantially increased the likelihood of relapse. Therefore, current drinking may provide an adequate reference point for relapse prevention. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved