The Energy Mismatch Changes in the load demand curves in the Dutch residential sector as a consequence of a wide-scale implementation of decentralised energy generation technologies

The energy demand of the residential sector in the Netherlands covers 13% of the total energy demand. 19% of the total electricity demand in the Netherlands is from the residential sector. This study models and analyses the changes in heat and electricity load demand curves of the residential sector as a consequence of a wide-scale implementation of decentralized electricity and heat supply technologies in the Dutch residential sector in 2050. A scenario analysis is applied for this purpose. First, the change in amount and types of dwellings in the residential sector in 2050 is modeled. Furthermore, the yearly and hourly heat and electricity demand patterns are simulated per dwelling type. Different decentralized generation technology implementation scenarios are used in the model. A business as usual scenario is shown together with three more extreme implementation scenarios: an all electric scenario, a maximum decentralized generation scenario and a net zero energy building scenario. The scenarios are compared to a reference scenario. The changes in the electricity and heat demand curves as a result of the implementation scenarios are analyzed on an hourly basis and the impact on the CO2 emission and the Dutch power supply system is discussed. Different types of change in the electricity load demand curve of the Dutch residential sector in 2050 are shown for the presented scenarios. The first is the change in yearly net electricity demand over the year. The second type of change is the maximum electricity demand over the year. Thirdly, the long term seasonal fluctuation is shown for the different scenarios. The fourth type of change is the short term fluctuation on diurnal and hourly scale. On a national scale, no quantitative results are shown on the net electricity demand pattern. However, qualitatively is shown that the diurnal fluctuation on the national system of all sectors decreases as a result of the implementation of the maximum decentralized generation scenario and in a lower extend for the business as usual scenario and the all electric scenario. The change in the diurnal net electricity demand patterns of the scenarios results in a lower peak demand on the national system, which is more explicit in summer than in winter. However, the hourly fluctuation in the net electricity demand pattern of all sectors does increase, which is also more salient in summer than in winter. The net zero energy building scenario results in lower base load demand of the national system. The net zero energy building and maximum decentralized generation scenarios are preferable from a CO2 emission point of view. A drawback of those scenarios is the fact that they result in large fluctuations in the electricity and heat demand patterns of the residential sector on both short as long term. If one wants to have as little impact as possible on the manner the power supply system works now, the business as usual scenario and to a certain extend the all electric scenario are preferable. Although the heating infrastructure has to change completely as a result of the all electric scenario, the change in the electricity demand curves of the residential sector is relatively low. Although the scenario has high technology implementation ratios, the CO2 emission decrease is relative small. The net zero energy building scenario generates large amounts of electricity in summer. As a result, the base load demand of the national system will decrease, resulting in a larger fluctuation on a national scale. The CO2 emission is halved for this scenario. The maximum decentralized generation scenario also generates more electricity in summer. However, the generation does not decrease the base load demand of the national power supply system. It does however decrease the peak demand of the national system, mainly in summer. This decrease in CO2-emission of 26% is relatively high. Both the maximum decentralized generation scenario and the net zero energy building scenario reduce the net heat demand of the residential sector by more than half