Analysis of multi-stage real options for timing redevelopment of super regional shopping centres in South Africa, utilizing study area Johannesburg West Region C

A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, University of the Witwatersrand, in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Building.With changing supply and demand economic conditions which may be unfavourable, it is imperative that investors time redevelopment of a property asset in order to maximise profitability. When correlating the relationship between capital values and vacancy rates of super regional shopping in South Africa between the years 2003 – 2012 there is a positive correlation, meaning that investors are not adequately timing the redevelopment of super regional shopping centres in order to maximum profitability. This research utilizes multi-stage real options to time redevelopment of shopping centres in order to maximise profits, through the analysis of supply and demand economic variables; and the Black-Scholes Model. The research methodology of the study ensured that the research results utilized were thoroughly investigated and tested through reliability and validity testing measures; and that the data collected was harvested from credible and reputable databases such as the Investment Property Databank Limited, Statistics South Africa and the City of Johannesburg