Are emission reduction policies effective under climate change conditions? A backcasting and exploratory scenario approach using the LEAPOSeMOSYS Model

The power sector exercises huge impacts on global warming through emitted greenhouse gases [GHGs], withAustralia not an exception. Over the years, the effectiveness of policies that have emerged to curtail GHGsemissions from electricity generation seem barely investigated. To address this gap, the study identifies potentialenergy reduction policies and climate change scenarios for the Australian power sector by applying approachesfrom combined backcasting and exploratory scenario. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP)system and its integrated Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) was used for optimisation analysis. Results identified cost optimisation scenarios as a least-cost generation pathway with less climate changeimpact, followed by renewable energy target and energy productivity scenarios. Economic analysis shows thatemission reduction policy will result in added cost to the economy, while carbon tax policies will yield economicbenefit in installation cost, resource savings and environmental externalities reductions by 2050. The environmental analysis reveals that emission reduction policy will increase cumulative emissions, while future temperatures may double the emissions from the base case scenario. We conclude that future low-carbon pathwayslie in clean energy substitutions and innovative energy policies, while global warming raises the need to switchto clean energy technologies early