Change of maximum snow cover depth in Poland – trends and projections

The present paper examines the observed variability of maximum depth of snow cover in Poland and its projections for near (2021–2050) and far (2071-2100) future. The study makes use of a set of 43 time series of observation records from stations in Poland, from 1951 to 2013. For the future, two downscaling experiments were conducted with the aim of producing reliable high-resolution climate projections of precipitation and temperature for Poland. The results of these projections were used as the input data to the seNorge snow model in order to transform bias-adjusted daily temperature and precipitation into daily snow conditions. Observed behavior of time series of snow is complex and not easy to interpret. The changes (if any) are dominated by strong inter-winter and intra-winter variability, rendering trend detection difficult. Projected seasonal snow cover depth (for winter as well as spring and autumn) as simulated by the snow model for the near and far future show decreases. The rate of decreasing maximum snow depth is expected to at least double by 2071–2100