<Articles> On raising rate of VAT for social security finance and a policy to moderate regressivity

[要旨]本稿では，社会保障財源として，消費税率の引き上げはどこまで必要であるかを予測し，消費税の増税から生じる負担の逆進性への対応策と軽減税率が引き起こしている制度の非効率性への対応策を検討した。本稿で得られた結果として，第１に，2025年において一般会計における社会保障分収支は，現在価値で15.4兆円の赤字となる。社会保障財源として国税分を増税させ，これにともなって現状の割合で地方消費税分も増税させ，軽減税率は据え置くとすると，消費税の税率は約18％となる。第２に，消費税増税に対する負担の逆進性への緩和策として，カナダ型の GST 控除制度を検討した。結果として，カナダ型の GST 控除制度はある程度の所得水準までは，負担の逆進性の緩和を解消することがわかった。第３に，軽減税率による制度の非効率性について検討した。その結果，税率を１本とすると，消費税率は18％で，家計１人あたり3.6万円の定額給付で，しかも各所得階層の負担額は消費税率を18％で軽減税率を８％の場合とほぼ同じになることがわかった。さいごに基礎消費額にかかる消費税に対して，所得制限を設けずに還付するという制度設計を検討した。その結果，還付額が大きくなるために，消費税率は37％となることがわかった。 [Abstract] This paper, has estimated to what extent a VAT hike should be essential to secure financial resources for the social security system. This paper has also considered necessary measures taken for regressivity caused by the burden from a VAT hike and for inefficiency due to reduced tax rates.The findings of this research have confirmed, first, that the balance of social security finance in the general account budget is estimated to have a dificit of about a 15.4 trillion by 2025. When the national tax rate is increased for social security finance and the local consumption tax rate, is also increased to the present precentage, the reduced tax rate remains the same as the VAT rate becomes about 18％. Second, this paper has examined a Canadian GST credit system easing regressivity caused by a VAT hike. This examination has confirmed that the Canadian GST deduction system model can ease such regressivity to a certain income level. Third, the examination of inefficiency due to reduced tax rates has confirmed that setting a single VAT rate sets the VAT rate to 18％ along with a 36,000-yen fixedsum stipend per family member budget. The burden of each income bracket remains almost the same as the case with the VAT rate of 18％, and the reduced tax rate of 8％. The final point considered was a system of returning VAT that is levied on the basic consumption amount without limiting the income level. This attempt has found that the VAT rate becomes 37％ because of a greater return.application/pdfdepartmental bulletin pape