Determination of Hit Probability of the Surface-to-Air Missile

Na početku rada objašnjava se koje su operativne zadaće koje postrojba protuzračne obrane mora odraditi kako bi se ostvario pogodak cilja raketom. Dalje se ukratko pojašnjavaju te operativne zadaće kako bi se shvatio problem samog pogađanja cilja. U radu je napravljena podjela raketa s obzirom na upaljače bojeve glave. Objašnjeno je koje su prednosti i zašto se većinom koriste bojeve glave s blizinskim upaljačem u odnosu na bojeve glave s udarnim upaljačem. Koristeći program Octave pokazano je kako promjena određenih parametara utječe na veličinu greške (promašaja), brzinu fragmenata i ostale pojmove važne za vjerojatnost pogađanja cilja. Na kraju rada su prikazani i statistički podaci pogađanja cilja PZ raketama u određenim ratovima druge polovice 20. stoljeća.At the beginning of the thesis: „Probability of hitting a target by anti-aircraft missile“ various operational tasks are explained, which the unit of air-defense has to as to hitt a target by antiaircraft missile. Furthermore, these operational tasks are explained in order to understand the problem of hitting a target. Partition is made considering warheads. It is explained which pros of proximity warheads in regards to contact warheads are. By using the software Octave, it is shown how slight modification of certain variables affect the miss distance, velocity of fragments and other parameters important for probability of hitting a target. At the end of the thesis, statistical data on hitting a target by anti-aircraft missile in certain wars of second half of 20th century are demonstrated