Influence of SARS-COV-2 pandemic on oil prices in 2020 : master's thesis

U razdoblju od tri mjeseca od prvog slučaja pojave koronavirusa u prosincu 2019. u Kini, Svjetska zdravstvena organizacija proglasila je pandemiju. Vlade diljem svijeta su uvele mjere za suzbijanje širenja COVID-19 koje su uključivale stroga ograničenja kretanja čija je posljedicu bila pad potražnje za naftom i naftnim derivatima, a sukladno tome pad cijena nafte. Unatoč tome, Saudijska Arabija u ožujku preplavljuje tržište naftom započinjući jednomjesečni cjenovni sukob s Rusijom. Zbog kontinuirane proizvodnje i smanjenja potražnje, dolazi do zapunjenosti skladišta nafte. Prvi puta u povijesti cijena sirove nafte WTI pada ispod nule, na iznos -37,63 dolara po barelu. Unatoč predviđanjima da bi broj zaraženih mogao pasti s dolaskom ljeta i toplijeg vremena, povećava se broj zaraženih osoba pri čemu broj zaraženih u prosincu premašuje 65 milijuna. Cijene nafte od ožujka nisu dosegle razinu od 50 USD/bbl, iako su u trećem kvartalu 2020.godine bile stabilnije u odnosu na ostatak godine. Posljedice pandemije postaju sve jasnije, svijet ulazi u recesiju, naftna industrija već se suočava s ogromnim financijskim gubitcima, dolazi do otpuštanja velikog broja radnika u cjelokupnom naftnom sektoru. Pandemija virusa COVID-19 se nastavlja pri čemu ostaje i neizvjesnost daljnjeg razvoja situacije cijele pandemije.Within three months of the first case of the Coronavirus in December 2019 in China, the World Health Organization declared a pandemic. Governments around the world have introduced measures to reduce the spread of COVID-19 that have included strict restrictions on movement resulting in a sharp drop in demand for oil and petroleum products, and a corresponding drop in oil prices. Despite this, Saudi Arabia flooded the oil market in March, starting a month-long price conflict with Russia. Due to continuous production and reduced demand, the oil storages were full. For the first time in history, the price of WTI crude oil fell below zero, to -37.63 USD/bbl. Despite predictions that the number of infected people could fall with the arrival of summer and warmer weather, the number of infected people has been increasing, with the number of infected people exceeding 65 million in December. Oil prices have not reached the level of 50 USD/bbl since March, although in the third quarter of 2020 were more stable, in comparison to the rest of the year. The consequences of the pandemic are becoming clearer, the world is entering a recession, the oil industry is already facing huge financial losses, a large number of layoffs are taking place in the entire oil sector. The COVID-19 virus pandemic continues, leaving uncertainty about the further development of the entire pandemic situation