Systemic Risk in U.S. Crop and Revenue Insurance Programs

This study estimates the probability density function of the Federal Risk Management Agency\u27s (RMA) net income from reinsuring crop insurance for corn, wheat, and soybeans. Based on 1997 data, the authors estimate that there is a 5 percent probability that RMA will need to reimburse at least $1 billion to insurance companies, and that the fair value of RMA\u27s reinsurance services to insurance firms equals $78.7 million. In addition, various hedging strategies are examined for their potential to reduce RMA\u27s reinsurance risk. The risk reduction achievable by hedging is appreciable, but use of derivative contracts alone is clearly no panacea