Application of Markov chain in students’ assessment and performance: a case study of School of Mathematical Sciences, one of the public university in Malaysia

The quality education is an essential element in economic, political and social development of any country. Therefore, enrollment forecasting is needed in higher education to assist the universities in the preparation of their educational frameworks including budgeting, provide all necessary facilities and planning the overall short and long term goals. This research study the pattern of students’ assessment and their academic performance in School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia. The target population is all undergraduate enrollment from 2016/2017 until 2018/2019 sessions. An absorbing Markov chain model is applied to study the absorption, retention and repetitive rates of the students by the academic programs and gender. The fundamental matrix is constructed to determine the expected duration of schooling before graduating. The enrollment projection is also estimated to study the probability of the performances of the students in the long run. In summary, this research addresses on the use of Markov chain model to describe the stochastic pattern of the enrollment and assessment of the students