Effects of temperature extremes on daily mortality in Castile-La Mancha (Spain): trends from 1975 to 2003.

To determine time trends and the geographical distribution of mortality trigger temperature thresholds due to extreme temperatures in Castile-La Mancha (central Spain) between 1975 and 2003. The analysis was divided into three periods (1975-1984, 1985-1994 and 1995-2003) for each province of the region. Daily mortality due to organic causes (dependent variable) was modelled using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) procedures. The resulting residual series was related to the maximum temperature series grouped in 2 degrees C intervals to obtain a threshold temperature for cold or heat when the residuals rose significantly (p