Dynamics of Bitcoin mining profitability and its break-even electricity costs

The aim of this thesis is to investigate the Bitcoin mining profitability throughout the years 2014 to 2020 with the focus on the year 2020. The analysis is based on the break-even electricity price estimates which are obtained by using a set of variables entering the Bitcoin mining process such as the block reward, transaction fees, network hash rate or power consumption. The calculations are performed under the assumption that miner owns the most efficient mining hardware available at the time while disregarding the original investments in the necessary hardware. To further examine the relationship between the estimated break-even electricity price and the Bitcoin market price the cointegration analysis is performed employing a vector error correction model as the series seem to be nonstationary. The final results illustrate the substantial effect the Bitcoin market price has on the break-even electricity price estimates to the extent that there is rather long-term reaction in the break-even electricity price values to the shocks in the Bitcoin market price. The findings from the research offer insights to the Bitcoin mining process suggesting that an access to extremely low electricity prices is needed to earn any profits from the Bitcoin mining activity in 2020