Diplomatic Intervention and the Effects of Third-Party State Power on Intrastate War Outcome

This paper seeks to examine the role third-party states may play as diplomatic intervenors in intrastate wars. Because diplomatic interventions seek settlement outcomes over military victory, understanding the efficacy of these interventions may provide support for their usage over non-diplomatic options. I hypothesize that third-party state power, in the form of military, economic, and political capabilities, will impact the likelihood of diplomatic intervention outcome; more powerful third-party states will have a greater likelihood of producing preferred outcomes. I use 12 multinomial regression models to examine this relationship. I find that economic capabilities are the only factor of state power that produce a significant relationship with partial settlement only. Assessing this relationship, I suggest states with higher levels of economic production and consumption may have positive, yet also limited, impacts as diplomatic intervenors in intrastate war