Snökanoner över Östersjön och Bottniska Viken: En fallstudie över hur väl HARMONIE simulerar extrem nederbörd

Convective snow bands forming over the Baltic Sea can result in heavy precipitation along the Swedish east coast. Forecasting these events well is of great importance to prevent road traffic injuries, increased pressure at hospitals and cancelled bus traffic. This thesis project aims to evaluate the performance of the high-resolution non-hydrostatic convection permitting model HIRLAM ALADIN Reasearch on Mesoscale Operational NWP In Euromed (HARMONIE) in simulating convective snow bands. Its horizontal respresentation of precipitation rates, area, placement and timing was examined in a case study of two events. The case of 2007 during the 12-14th of November, formed over the Gulf of Finland and resulted in Nynäshamn receiving ≥ 55 mm precipitation during the 37 hours long event. Areas south of this precipitation maxima also recieved heavy precipitation. The second case, 21-23rd of March 2008, formed over the Gulf of Bothnia during north-easterly winds and resulted in a total precipitation of 10 mm at Gävle. The precipitation maxima was observed offshore, north of Gävle, with ≥ 16 mm precipiation in 34 hours. Convective snow bands were also observed over Vänern and Vättern in both cases. HARMONIE simulated convective snow bands well in terms of intensity, timing, placement and area, in both cases, compared to datasets from radar, radar with merged gauge data and separate observational data from weather stations. Areas south of the local maxima at Nynäshamn in the case of 2007 were however overestimated by a total of 10-15 mm, most likely due to a simulated shift in wind direction during some of the most intense hours. In the case of 2008 the model also captured weak convective snow bands at Vänern and Vättern accurately in terms of precipitation area, timing and accumulated precipitation. Further case studies of snow bands are however necessary to obtain a more comprehensive view of the performance of HARMONIE