JAPAN'S MODERN SECURITY POLICY TRAJECTORY: POST–COLD WAR EXPLANATIONS AND FUTURE IMPLICATIONS

This thesis explores three aspects of post–Cold War Japanese security policy development. First, what significant security policy changes have occurred between 1989 and 2020? Second, what were the underlying factors that created the observed policy outcome? Third, how durable do those factors appear to be in 2020 and beyond? This thesis concludes with an assessment of Japan's probable future security policy trajectory, based upon the answers to the three foregoing questions. In seeking to answer the above questions, this thesis draws four primary conclusions. First, that Japan has maintained a consistent, but limited, security policy trajectory toward militarization over the observed period from 1989–2020. Second, that the observed trajectory is being driven by an interaction between external factors (China threat, North Korea threat, U.S. force presence, and U.S. diplomacy) and internal factors (antiwar norms, suspicion of revisionists, single-party dominance, and prime minister preferences). Third, that the factors driving Japan’s security policy trajectory toward militarization are currently durable in both vector and degree, while the factors resisting further militarization are situationally malleable. Fourth, and finally, that Japan is likely to remain on a long-term trajectory toward further militarization, in which Japanese technological and legal capability for use of force will continue to expand.Lieutenant, United States NavyApproved for public release. distribution is unlimite