GROWTH SCENARIOS OF AREA, PRODUCTION AND YIELD OF RICE IN BANGLADESH

Bangladesh is an agro-based developing country where rice is the dominant crop. And it is the staple food for this country. Over the long period, rice production in Bangladesh has been gradually increased, now the country has reached in self-sufficiency in rice production. The study attempted to estimate growth of area, production, and yield of rice in Bangladesh. The semi log model (Log-Lin) was used to estimate the compound growth rates of rice of different seasons. The study was based on secondary data covered from the period 1971/72 to 2015/16.Growth rates were estimated separately for local and high yielding variety, and also, they were estimated together. The growth rate of an area of Aus was found -3.40 percent for the entire period that means an area of Aus cultivation has been decreased on an average 3.40 percent per year and it was statistically significant. And for Aman it was 0.10 percent, but statistically insignificant. On the other hand, it was 4.40 for Boro that means an area of Boro cultivation has been increased 4.40 percent per year which was statistically significant. The growth rate of production of Aus was also significantly negative and it was 1.30 per cent and positive for Aman and Boro rice that were 1.90 and 5.70 percent per year, respectively. The growth rates of area and production of HYV rice (Aus, Aman and Boro) were found positive for every case and negative for local. Growth rates of yield of Aus, Aman and Boro were significantly positive, which were 2.10, 1.80 and 1.30 percent per year, respectively for the entire period. Growth rates were estimated for the different sub-periods dividing the entire period of decades. Examining the reasons for different growth scenarios could be the future research in this connection