The impact of organizational complex adaptive system constraints on strategy selection: A systematic review of the literature

The purpose of this study is threefold: (a) to create new knowledge that addresses strategies related to managing constraints, (b) to capture relevant data that is generalizable to strategy selection in judgment and decision-making processes, and (c)explain relevant data in terms that produce actionable for recommendations for planning and decision-making practitioners. The methodologyused was a Systematic Review of the Literature that is part of an evidence-based management framework. This framework incorporated evidence from a dataset consisting of 43 scholarly articles used to answer the research question: What are the impacts of complex adaptive system constraints on strategy selection as a component of decision-making in organizations?The systematic review and analysis produced four analytic themes: (a)organizational complex adaptive system constraints,(b) framing constraint-based problems, (c)constraint circumvention strategies, and (d)complexity and predictability. From a further exploration of the four analytic themes,bounded rationality, time, and constraints originating in complex adaptive systems. Practical implications include the development of a model that recognizes the potential of constraints increasing as adaptations to complex systems are made. Adaptation based on these recognitions require analysis to identify and frame potential constraints in order to develop circumventions.THE IMPACT OF ORGANIZATIONAL COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS 1 Abstract Title of Dissertation: THE IMPACT OF ORGANIZATIONAL COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM CONSTRAINTS ON STRATEGY SELECTION: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE David E. McCullin Doctor of Management, 2020 The purpose of this study is threefold: (a) to create new knowledge that addresses strategies related to managing constraints, (b) to capture relevant data that is generalizable to strategy selection in judgment and decision-making processes, and (c) explain relevant data in terms that produce actionable for recommendations for planning and decision-making practitioners. The methodology used was a Systematic Review of the Literature that is part of an evidence-based management framework. This framework incorporated evidence from a dataset consisting of 43 scholarly articles used to answer the research question: What are the impacts of complex adaptive system constraints on strategy selection as a component of decision-making in organizations? The systematic review and analysis produced four analytic themes: (a) organizational complex adaptive system constraints, (b) framing constraint-based problems, (c) constraint circumvention strategies, and (d) complexity and predictability. From a further exploration of the four analytic themes, bounded rationality, time, and constraints originating in complex adaptive systems. Practical implications include the development of a model that recognizes the potential of constraints increasing as adaptations to complex systems are made. Adaptation based on these recognitions require analysis to identify and frame potential constraints in order to develop circumventions. Key Terms: constraints, judgment and decision-making, strategy selection, organizational complex adaptive systems, game theory. THE IMPACT OF ORGANIZATIONAL COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS 2 THE IMPACT OF ORGANIZATIONAL COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM CONSTRAINTS ON STRATEGY SELECTION: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE By David E. McCullin Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the University of Maryland University College, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Management 2020 THE IMPACT OF ORGANIZATIONAL COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS 3 © Copyright by David E. McCullin 2020 THE IMPACT OF ORGANIZATIONAL COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS 4 THE IMPACT OF ORGANIZATIONAL COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS 5 Dedication Although this dissertation created knowledge that is ripe for new innovations in judgement and decision-making, the personal aspects of the dissertation are equally important. This is true for the transforming I have undergone by completing this credential and the sense of accomplishment it has evoked. For me, the personal aspects go beyond self. The support and motivation I received that helped me through this process will be dedicated both personally and professionally. Personally, in the dedications that follow and professionally in the acknowledgements. The people I identify are identified in a personal way which will be ambiguous to everyone except the person for whom it was intended. Epp, Hohe-Crash and Case, I dedicated this to you hoping you understand that you should never stop learning. Glank and Kubla I hope by this dedication I can convey to you credentialed learning is also for black men. Pear and Cinamo you never get too old. Pookie, we both did this late in life, we both helped each other and are both looking at the next phase. Would not have wanted to do this without you and fortunately for me, I didn’t have to. The brothers who are not here but their influence remains: Thumbsy, you explained the value of education to me in a way young man could identify with; Dirty Bert, you broke ground in your educational process by going for it in spite of how it looked—that was not lost on me. Myrex, this is dedicated to you because of your 30-year educational-trek and for knowing the meaning of every word I ever asked you without looking it up. Finally, my faith in God has always made the difference in anything I tried to do. This is no exception…Whosoever shall say unto this mountain...Mark 11:23. THE IMPACT OF ORGANIZATIONAL COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS 6 Acknowledgements I hereby acknowledge the following persons with a personal message of thanks. To Dr Brekon, collegiate professor: You put program ideals first and demonstrated to me a willingness to solve problems. I thank you. To Dr Holiday my third dissertation defense committee member: Your open mindedness and adherence to scholarship helped me develop an idea into a dissertation. I thank you. To Dr Sherlock my second reader: Your inquiries and insights and obvious passion for systematic review kept the bar high and that is reflected in my work. I thank you. To Cynthia Thomes our doctoral librarian: I have relied on your professional expertise on numerous occasions and you have always been there with a cool calm demeanor that helps us maintain our sanity. To Marina Caminis: You are the friend when a friend is in need. You really seem to love what you do, and it shows. You help make this program what it is. I thank you. And finally, to Dr Bouchard my dissertation mentor: You are a “stand up person” like a stand-up guy An APA perfectionist with an eagle eye An evidence-based enthusiast through and through With only one attitude, can do, can do Wanted to express in a way that’s unique In way and beyond what a simple thanks could speak Ok so I said it my own way I hope you liked it, “ain’t no more to say.” THE IMPACT OF ORGANIZATIONAL COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS 7 Table of Contents Abstract ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Dedication .................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................................................. 6 List of Figures .......................................................................................................................................................... 12 List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................................ 13 Chapter 1: Introduction and Overview of the Management Problem ................................................. 1 Problem Statement and Significance of the Problem ................................................................................. 5 Problem Statement .............................................................................................................................................. 5 Significance of the Problem .............................................................................................................................. 6 Modeling Judgment and Decision-Making for Research ...................................................................... 6 Constraints .............................................................................................................................................................. 9 Purpose of the Study and Research Question ................................................................................................ 9 Purpose Statement .............................................................................................................................................. 9 Research Question ................................................................................................................................................. 10 CIMO ....................................................................................................................................................................... 10 Development of the Research Question ................................................................................................... 10 Rationale for the Study ........................................................................................................................................ 11 Definitions and Terminology ............................................................................................................................. 12 Availability Bias ................................................................................................................................................. 12 Bounded Rationality ........................................................................................................................................ 12 THE IMPACT OF ORGANIZATIONAL COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS 8 Constraints ........................................................................................................................................................... 13 Complex Adaptive Systems ............................................................................................................................ 13 Confirmation Bias ............................................................................................................................................. 13 Non-Cooperative Game ................................................................................................................................... 14 Organizational Systems .................................................................................................................................. 14 Satisficing .............................................................................................................................................................. 14 Strategy Selection ............................................................................................................................................. 14 Organization of the Dissertation ...................................................................................................................... 15 Chapter 2: Scoping Literature Review and Theoretical Frame ........................................................... 16 Important Scholarly Works ........................................................................................................................... 16 Complex Adaptive Systems ............................................................................................................................ 16 Judgment and Decision-Making ................................................................................................................... 18 Constraints ........................................................................................................................................................... 21 Game Theory and Strategy Selection ......................................................................................................... 23 Theoretical Framework ...................................................................................................................................... 26 Rationale for Theoretical Perspective ....................................................................................................... 28 Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) ............................................................................................................... 28 Bounded Rationality ........................................................................................................................................ 29 Constraints ........................................................................................................................................................... 30 Strategy Selection: Game Theory ................................................................................................................ 30 Highlights of the Relevant Literature ........................................................................................................ 31 THE IMPACT OF ORGANIZATIONAL COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS 9 Chapter Summary .................................................................................................................................................. 31 Chapter 3: Method ................................................................................................................................................. 33 Research Question Development Restated ............................................................................................. 33 The Evidence-Based Management Framework .................................................................................... 33 The Search Process ........................................................................................................................................... 35 Search Strings ..................................................................................................................................................... 36 Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria ...................................................................................................................... 37 Method of Critical Appraisal .......................................................................................................................... 37 Analysis and Synthesis Methodology ............................................................................................................. 40 Thematic Synthesis .......................................................................................................................................... 40 Subject Matter Experts ........................................................................................................................................ 41 Chapter Summary .................................................................................................................................................. 43 Chapter 4: Analysis and Findings ..................................................................................................................... 45 Review of the Research Questions .................................................................................................................. 45 Description of the Data Set ................................................................................................................................ 45 Results of the Critical Appraisal ....................................................................................................................... 46 Findings and Discussion ..................................................................................................................................... 47 Finding 1: Organizational Complex Adaptive Systems Constraints ............................................. 47 Finding 2: Framing Constraints ................................................................................................................... 50 Finding 3: Circumventing Constraints ...................................................................................................... 53 Finding 4: Complexity and Predictability ................................................................................................ 56 THE IMPACT OF ORGANIZATIONAL COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS 10 Emergence of Additional Analytic Themes ............................................................................................. 59 Finding 5: Constraints Originating in Complex Adaptive Systems .................................................... 59 Finding 6: Bounded Rationality as a Constraint ........................................................................................ 60 Finding 7: Time as a Constraint ........................................................................................................................ 61 Final Analytic Themes Recapped ..................................................................................................................... 62 Conceptual Framework ....................................................................................................................................... 62 Chapter Summary .................................................................................................................................................. 63 Chapter 5: Conclusions and Implications ..................................................................................................... 64 Review of the Research .................................................................................................................................. 64 Answer to the Research Question ............................................................................................................... 64 Implementing Factors .......................................................................................................................................... 65 Factor 1 .................................................................................................................................................................. 66 Factor 2 .................................................................................................................................................................. 66 Factor 3 .................................................................................................................................................................. 67 Factor 4 .................................................................................................................................................................. 68 Factor 5 .................................................................................................................................................................. 69 Recommendations for Management Practice ............................................................................................. 69 COMPSS, PREANSS, and CONTSS Explained ........................................................................................... 72 Risk Assessment Key Questions .................................................................................................................. 78 Key Questions: Diagnostic Framing (Triggers) ..................................................................................... 78 Key Questions: Diagnostic Framing (Continuum) ............................................................................... 78 THE IMPACT OF ORGANIZATIONAL COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS 11 Key Questions: Diagnostic Framing (Stakeholders) ........................................................................... 78 Key Questions: Diagnostic Framing (Space) .......................................................................................... 78 Key Questions: Operational Strategies ..................................................................................................... 79 Key Questions: Predictive Circumvention Strategies ......................................................................... 79 Key Questions: Contingency Circumvention Strategies .................................................................... 79 Limitations of the Research ............................................................................................................................... 79 Areas for Future Research ................................................................................................................................. 82 Final Summary and Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 83 References ................................................................................................................................................................. 85 Nash, J, (2002). The Essential John Nash, Oxford University Press. ................................................... 94 Appendix A .............................................................................................................................................................. 101 Appendix B ............................................................................................................................