Análisis y pronóstico del precio de la vivienda en España: modelo econométrico desde una perspectiva conductual

The present paper develops an econometric model of the real estate cycle, focused on the analysis of the residential market in Spain, and aims to predict the future evolution of the average and fundamental prices of the housing industry. Unlike traditional models, the Econometric Model developed incorporates not only an extrinsic and intrinsic approach, but also analytical assumptions and criteria inherited from the Behavioral School. Contrasting the Modern Financial School theory, the Behavioral Finance School assumes the presence of irrational investors in the market. Thereby irrational decisions substantially influence, in a persistent way, whether underestimating or overestimating, the evolution of asset prices. This irrational influence is the fundamental basis of both expansive and depressive phases that shape the real estate cycle.El presente documento desarrolla un modelo econométrico del ciclo inmobiliario, concretamente del mercado residencial, con la finalidad de prever la evolución futura de los precios del sector. A diferencia de otros modelos, nuestra propuesta incorpora, no sólo un acercamiento que combina el enfoque extrínseco e intrínseco, si no también hipótesis y criterios de la Escuela Conductual. En contraste con la escuela financiera moderna, las finanzas conductuales asumen la presencia de inversores irracionales en el mercado, que influyen en los precios infravalorándolos o sobrevalorándolos de forma persistente y duradera, factor que constituye la base de las fases expansivas y depresivas que desarrollan el ciclo inmobiliario. ABSTRACT The present paper develops an econometric model of the real estate cycle, focused on the analysis of the residential market in Spain, and aims to predict the future evolution of the average and fundamental prices of the housing industry. Unlike traditional models, the Econometric Model developed incorporates not only an extrinsic and intrinsic approach, but also analytical assumptions and criteria inherited from the Behavioral School. Contrasting the Modern Financial School theory, the Behavioral Finance School assumes the presence of irrational investors in the market. Thereby irrational decisions substantially influence, in a persistent way, whether underestimating or overestimating, the evolution of asset prices. This irrational influence is the fundamental basis of both expansive and depressive phases that shape the real estate cycle