Modelling the spatial allocation of 2nd-generation feedstock (lignocellulosic crops) in Europe

The main topic of this paper is modelling the spatial allocation of 2nd generation feedstock (lignocellulosic crops) under a reference policy scenario in Europe. The Land Use Modelling Platform (LUISA) has been used in order to simulate the land use changes from 2010 to 2050. The configuration of LUISA is detailed, highlighting the biophysical suitability aspects of two main energy crops groups: herbaceous and woody lignocellulosic crops. A suitability map for each energy crop was generated using multicriteria analysis (MCA). Biophysical factors (climate, soil properties and topographical aspects), natural and artificial constraints and location-specific land categories were defined as relevant components within the platform. A sensitivity analysis of the set of selected factors was then applied. The sensitive analysis provide insight into the most influent factors on the model, highlighting temperature, precipitation, length growing period and frost free days. The results of modelling 2nd generation feedstock in LUMP clearly reflected the significant renewable energy contribution from energy crops in EU-28, which was estimated in the range between 12.25 PJ/year (in 2020) and 33.18 PJ/year (in 2050). The aggregated results of 2nd generation feedstock per NUTS3 level were mapped to show the energy crop land allocation trend and to identify the regions where its demand is significantly high such as Germany, the United Kingdom and Poland. NOTE: The former acronym 'LUMP' is used in the paper instead of 'LUISA', due to the timing of submission and revision of the paper.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen