Assessment of Riverine Load of Contaminants to European Seas under Policy Implementation Scenarios: An Example with 3 Pilot Substances

In order to support the implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive an evaluation of emission scenarios is carried out targeting the possible impact of EU environmental policies on the riverine loads to the European seas for three example pollutants: Lindane, Trifluralin and Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS). The scenarios are investigated to the time horizon of year 2020 starting from chemical specific reference conditions and considering different types of regulatory measures as Business as Usual (BAU), current trend, partial implementation or complete ban of emissions. For Lindane, the model estimated European sea load of 745 tons per 1995, based on the official emission data, appears to be reduced by 98.3% in 2005, ten years after the start of the EU regulations for γ-HCH. Under the BAU scenario, a Lindane sea load of ca.12.5 tons per year should be expected. The trend and ban scenarios support, respectively, a reduction of the load to the European seas in 2020 by 74% and 95% when compared to the BAU estimate. For Trifluralin, an annual load of ca.61.7 tones is estimated for the baseline year 2003 (BAU scenario). This is likely to overestimate the sea load, because of the method by which it is presently possible to estimate emissions from the available European pesticide use data. Under the ban scenario assuming only small residual emissions of Trifluralin, a load of ca. 0.07 t/y is estimated. For PFOS, the total sea load from all European countries is estimated to be 5.8 tons per year referred to 2007. By halving this load, most of the European rivers would have concentrations below 50 ng/L. Dropping the total load of PFOS below 1 t/y requires emissions to be reduced by 84%. The analysis of emission scenarios using spatially explicit models is suggested as a viable, affordable exercise that may support the assessment of policies and the identification or negotiation of emission reduction targets.JRC.H.1-Water Resource