Prospects for Agricultural Markets and Income in the EU 2012-2022

The outlook presented herein consists of a set of market and sector income prospects elaborated on the basis of specific assumptions regarding macroeconomic conditions, the agricultural and trade policy environment, weather conditions and international market developments. As in previous years, these are not intended to constitute a forecast of what the future will hold, rather they describe what may happen under a specific set of assumptions and circumstances, which at the time of projections were judged plausible. Thus, they should be seen as an analytical tool for medium term market and policy issues, not as a forecasting tool for monitoring short term market developments. These projections and analyses have been carried out on the basis of economic models available in the European Commission (at the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development and in the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Perspective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS)). This report is based on the information available at the end of September 2012, except for macroeconomic assumptions, which are from November 2012. The changes in legislation proposed or adopted since that date have not been taken into account. Moreover the projections do not take account of any potential outcome of ongoing bilateral/regional/multilateral trade negotiations. The analysis covers the period between 2012 and 2022.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom