Model based analysis of policy options for E-mobility and related infrastructure in the EU

An extensive system dynamic market agent based model of the EU light vehicle road transport sector has been employed to assess the charge point infrastructure implications of the EC "Clean Power for Transport" Package (as set out in EC COM(2013)17). The model, which has been developed by the JRC IET and Ventana Systems UK, encompasses the market agents of User, Manufacturer, Infrastructure Provider and Authorities, capturing many important feedbacks and interactions over the period 1996 to 2050. This model is particularly sophisticated as it captures consumer "willingness to consider" different powertrain technologies, with a specific focus on e-mobility, based on their awareness of that technology from social interaction and cognitive and emotional behaviour. Moreover, the model mimics the customer's choice of a powertrain based on their preferences and the technical attributes of the powertrain itself, which develop over time. Following a review of current literature and an overview of the model, we assess scenarios related to EU Emission Regulations (EC Regulation 333/2014) and subsidies for purchase of electric vehicles (EV) or for the provision of related infrastructure. Our findings suggest that infrastructure provision does improve the utility of a plug-in electric vehicle, but may have a weaker correlation with uptake than other policy options. Furthermore we consider the sensitive interaction between different types of EV and the impact on GHG emissions. Our focus on infrastructure provides a timely contribution to the debate on the so called "chicken and egg" problem that is thought to exist between electric mobility and charging infrastructure, due to the interactions this model captures between the effective infrastructure, customer willingness to consider and powertrain choice. This research would seem to support EU aspirations for a significant move away from conventionally fuelled vehicles in order to achieve ambitious emission reduction targets. Regulations and subsidies aimed at all market agents are important in achieving this, though further research is needed to identify tipping points and saturation levels. The model and findings presented here may be useful to manufacturers, infrastructure providers and authorities involved in business strategy and policy design.JRC.F.6-Energy Technology Policy Outloo