Projection to 2020 for setting emission reduction targets in the Southern Mediterranean Partner Countries - An approach with a Business-as-Usual scenario

The Covenant of Mayors for the Members of the Southern Partnership required an adaption of the Covenant of Mayors methodology to the local situation and a complete revision of the Guidebook "How to develop a Sustainable Energy Action Plan (SEAP)". A similar adaption was made when extending the Covenant of Mayors to the Eastern Partnership Members, which allowed for a green growth while keeping up with the fixed 2020 targets. This revision aims to tackle in a more appropriate way the specific institutional and economic situation of the Southern Partnership Members involved in the initiative (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, Morocco, Palestine, Syrian Arab Republic and Tunisia). In particular this report describes the business-as-usual scenario approach and explains the underlying method and data applied for calculating specific coefficients in order to estimate emissions in 2020. As for the extension of the Covenant of Mayors project to the Eastern partnership, this option of using business as usual scenarios would avoid a burden to the signatories in their aspiration for further development and would allow social and economic progress. A scientific region-specific business-as-usual projection for the Mediterranean area, using European Commission tools and data, from the CIRCE integrated project for Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment was applied. The coefficients calculated in this report are necessary for the alternative approach setting the emission reduction target on a projected inventory in SEAPs instead of the traditional approach with direct emission reduction on the current situation. Therefore this report has to be considered as a background document of the Covenant of Mayors South Guidebook, which is forthcoming.JRC.H.2-Air and Climat