Stand-Alone VS. Grid Extension for Electrification in Kenya - Development of a Spatial Explicit Energy System Model

The achievement of the United Nations Millennium Development goals is strongly connected with access to electricity. The rate of electrification in Kenya is below the average in Sub-Saharan Africa. Expressed as a percentage, 14% of Kenyan inhabitants are connected to the grid. About 42% of the population has access to electricity in urban areas compared to only 4% in rural areas. A large majority of the population still relies on firewood for cooking and paraffin for lighting. Incentives to invest in rural areas are low due to high connection costs, low electricity consumption, and low income. In order to enable affordability it is imperative to choose the least cost option to cover electricity demand. There has been little focus on combining demand and supply side in one model and to apply it to developing countries. In this paper electricity consumption patterns in Kenyan households is analyzed and a tobit regression model is estimated that explains the monthly electricity demand by non- food expenditures, expenditures on water, number of years of education of the household head and the value of the house. The regression model is then used to forecast latent electricity demand which then serves as an input parameter for the supply-side least cost optimization model. By undertaking a spatially explicit assessment of the energy system, three different electrification options are assessed as possible solutions to expanding electrification within the country. The three options are electrification through grid extension, diesel generator and photovoltaic stand-alone systems.JRC.F.6-Energy systems evaluatio