Assessment of future scenarios of climate and land-use changes in the IMPRINTS test-bed areas

The main objective of this work is to identify and evaluate the potential impacts produced by climate and land use changes in six test-bed basins (Llobregat, Guadalhorce, Gardon d'Anduze, Linth, Verzasca and Sambuco). Data to build future scenarios that can modify the different basins' flash flood and debris flow risk level has been analyzed in this report. High resolution climate scenarios have been obtained from several European projects and/or National initiatives, depending on each case. Climatic variables have been widely analysed, with a special focus on extreme precipitation. The importance of using climate data at the maximum spatial and temporal resolution and downscaling methodologies, which have been adapted to basin scale (test-beds areas ranging from approx 200 to 5000 km2) and extreme rainfall values is one of the main conclusions. Typical GEV distributions have been fitted to observed and projected rainfall data in order to assess impacts in the frequency distributions of extreme rainfall up to 2100. Regarding land use changes, a cellular automata-based model has been used (MOLAND) to simulate the 2000-2040 period taking the CORINE land use dataset as input data. Llobregat, Guadalhorce and Gardon d'Anduze basins have been identified as potentially interesting for simulating urban land-use dynamics due to the existence of important urban areas within their limits. The assessment of the rural land-use changes has been carried out using the results from the Eururalis project (2000-2030 period), available for all the basins.JRC.H.7-Climate Risk Managemen