Towards an Integrated Scenario Approach for Spatial Planning and Natural Hazards Mitigation

In the frame of the support to the conception, definition and implementation of European policies, the Land Management Unit of the Institute for Environment and Sustainability (Directorate General Joint Research Centre (DG-JRC) of the European Commission (EC)) is developing an integrated framework to evaluate and propose strategies for the sustainable management of the European territory. An important tool within this framework is the MOLAND (Monitoring Land Use/Cover Dynamics) model for urban and regional growth forecast. The model is part of an integrated methodology based on a set of spatial planning tools that can be used for assessing, monitoring and modelling the development of urban and regional environments. The MOLAND model has been specifically designed for urban and regional development assessment. It is based on a spatial dynamics bottom-up approach. The model takes as input several georeferenced datasets for the future simulation of urban areas and/or regions. Thus, future urban scenarios can be produced by taking into account land use development trends, population growth, socio-economic factors and spatial planning policies. Urban simulations offer a useful approach to understanding the consequences of current spatial planning policies. Among other causes the analysis of urban areas and their development has particular relevance because of their growing exposure to natural hazards, particularly floods and forest fires. Inappropriate regional and urban planning can exacerbate the negative effects of natural hazards. On the other hand, good land management and planning practices, including appropriate land use and development control in flood-prone areas, represent suitable non-structural solutions to minimise flood damage. The effects of urban and regional development on flood risk should be evaluated to support both flood protection and spatial planning policies. This work supports policies such as the 6th Environment Action Program (Thematic Strategy on the Urban Environment; Thematic Strategy on Soil Protection), the forthcoming Floods Directive “Reducing the risks of floods in Europe”, the ESPON (European Spatial Planning Observation Network) programme, and the growing awareness at local level amongst spatial policy-makers of the close connections between world-wide land degradation and global change, as underpinned by the European Climate Change Programme. The new regulations for renewed Structural Funds and instruments for the period 2007-2013, adopted by the EC on 14 July 2004, foresee specific measures for “developing plans and measures to prevent and cope with natural risks”.JRC.H.7-Land management and natural hazard