Modelling Distributed Vulnerabilities in a Complex Network

Europe is increasingly dependent on large scale infrastructure networks that supply crucial resources. Supply vulnerability is not only dependent on economic or political issues but also on the integrity of the physical networks. The aim of this study is to develop a methodology to analyse the potential impact of failures or disruptions to such networks. These failures may result from technological, manmade (intentional or not) and natural causes such as earthquakes, subsidence, landslides and flooding. Such Natech events have a potential to create multiple dependent failures in the network. The international transmission pipeline system supplying Europe with gas from Russia, North Africa and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) has been considered as such an infrastructure. A detailed network flow model for three European countries using available data and various assumptions regarding the pipelines, associated infrastructure such as compressor stations and storage fields and supply/demand scenarios has been developed. Extension of the model to additional countries is anticipated. A methodology has been developed that combines the network model with an analysis of the consequences of infrastructure vulnerability on the economic losses resulting from loss of gas supply.JRC.G.7-Traceability and vulnerability assessmen