Electric vehicle aggregate power flow prediction and smart charging system for distributed renewable energy self-consumption optimization

In the context of electric vehicle (EV) development and positive energy districts with the growing penetration of non-programmable sources, this paper provides a method to predict and manage the aggregate power flows of charging stations to optimize the self-consumption and load profiles. The prediction method analyzes each charging event belonging to the EV population, and it considers the main factors that influence a charging process, namely the EV’s characteristics, charging ratings, and driver behavior. EV’s characteristics and charging ratings are obtained from the EV model’s and charging stations’ specifications, respectively. The statistical analysis of driver behavior is performed to calculate the daily consumptions and the charging energy request. Then, a model to estimate the parking time of each vehicle is extrapolated from the real collected data of the arrival and departure times in parking lots. A case study was carried out to evaluate the proposed method. This consisted of an industrial area with renewable sources and electrical loads. The obtained results show how EV charging can negatively impact system power flows, causing load peaks and high energy demand. Therefore, a charging management system (CMS) able to operate in the smart charging mode was introduced. Finally, it was demonstrated that the proposed method provides better EV integration and improved performance