Trajectory of Serum Bilirubin Predicts Spontaneous Recovery in a Real-World Cohort of Patients with Alcoholic Hepatitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is a severe condition with poor short-term prognosis. Specific treatment with corticosteroids slightly improves short-term survival but is associated with infection and is not used in many centers. A reliable method to identify patients who will recover spontaneously will minimise the numbers of patients who experience side effects of available treatments. METHODS We analysed the trajectory of serum bilirubin concentration over the course of hospital admissions in patients with AH to predict spontaneous survival and the need for treatment. RESULTS data from 426 patients were analysed. Based on bilirubin trajectory, patients were categorized into three groups: 'fast fallers' (bilirubin 0.9 - <1.2 x admission value) and 'rapid risers' (bilirubin of ≥1.2 x admission bilirubin). Fast fallers had significantly better 90-day survival compared to other groups (log rank p