Weather and corn: Crop condition reports are not enough

Drought, hail, frost, flood, and heat waves, together with impacts of soil fertility and moisture, weed pressure, insect damage, and plant disease are in the group of environmental factors that impact the reported crop condition and, ultimately, crop yield. Observed crop condition is the “best” early indicator of likely yield. Condition includes plant populations and viable ear counts. The “likely yield” estimated by the National Agricultural Statistics Service is based on the observed crop condition at the time the forecast is compiled and assumes “normal” weather for the remainder of the growing season. About one year in four, crop “Condition” is not the major indicator. When condition has stabilized, the better indicator is associated with growing degree days and the likely yield is not apparent to the observer of crop condition. The weekly federal assessment publishes crop condition and development but does not (apparently) consider the development and growing degree day accumulation in the forecast of likely yield