Managing price risk in a multimarket environment

In a competitive electricity market, a generation company (Genco) can manage its trading risk through trading electricity among multiple markets such as spot markets and contract markets. The question is how to decide the trading proportion of each market in order to maximize the Genco's profit and minimize the associated risk. Based on the mean-variance portfolio theory, this paper proposes a sequential optimization approach to electric energy allocation between spot and contract markets, taking into consideration the risks of electricity price, congestion charge, and fuel price. Especially, the impact of the fuel market on electric energy allocation is analyzed and simulated with historical data in respect of the electricity market and other fuel markets in the U.S. Simulation results confirm that the proposed analytic approach is consistent with intuition and therefore reasonable and feasible for a Genco to make a trading plan involving risks in an electricity market. © 2006 IEEE.published_or_final_versio