CONSIDERATIONS OF THE TREND OF THE CONSUMPTION OF IMPORTANT CROP PRODUCTS FOR FOOD IN JAPAN PROPER, AND OF THE ACCURACY OF THE CROP STATISTICS

(1) According to the usual method for calculating the per capita consumption, the calculation was made for the important crop products for food in Japan proper, from 1906 to 1927 inclusive, on the following formula : (Pr+I-E-C)/P : Pr Production : I Imports (including those from Korea and Formosa) : E Exports (including those to Korea and Formosa) : C Consumption other than for food. : P Population : And its value in calories and dry matter were calculated, and then these values in each year were totalled, and finally the 5 years moving averages of these totals were calculated. (2) The result thus calculated increased from 1906 to 1921 inclusive, but decreased thereafter. (3) Of the factors of the numerator of the above formula, the statistical figures for production are the largest in amount and their accuracy is very doubtful. It may be presumed that the statistical figures for production were smaller than the actual figures in the earlier years of this period, but were so remarkably improved as to have approached close to the actual figures in the recent years. (4) The result of the above calculation, however, suggest to us that the improvement in statistical figures does not play an important part and that there exist other causes more influential than this, becauee the resultant figures since 1922 show a constant decrease. (5) Considering that number of workers engaged in factories was the largest in 1921 in the period to 1925 and that prices of commodities were the highest in 1920, it may be assumed that the main cause of this variation of the moving averages lies in the business conditions and the disparity in accuracy of the statistical figures does not affect the resultant figures of the calculation substantially. (6) It is recognised, therefore, that the tren d of comsumption, calculated by the usual method, indicates, in the main, the actual trend of consumption. (7) The sum of calories and dry matter contained i n the per capita consumption of the important crop products for food actually increased from 1906 to 1921 inclusive, but has decreased since then.(1) 慣行の一人當り消費量計算法に則り次の式を用ひて明治三十九年より昭和二年までの各年(詳しくは前年十一月より當年十月末までを一年度とす)に就き圭要食用農産物の所謂一人當り食膳利用量を計算した。 : (産額+輸移人額-輸移出額-食用以外の消費額)/現住人口 : 次いで此のカロリー價及び乾物量を計算し, 此等の各年の合計を求め, 更に此の合計の五箇年の移動不均を計算した。(2) 此の計算の結果は明治三十九年以降大正十年まで漸増して居るが其の後は漸減して居る。(3) 上の算式の分子の因子中, 産額は最も大にして(砂糖及び近年に於ける大豆を除く)且其の正確の度が甚だ疑はしい。此の生産統計に就いては古くは實數より過少であつたが近年に至つて實數に近づいて來たと云ふ推定がある。(4) 然し (2) に述べた計算の結果が大正十一年以降減少しつゝあることから考へれば統計の改善は大したことで無く他に一層有力な原因があるのだらうと思はれる。(5) 物價は大正九年が最高く, 工揚に從事せる職工數は大正十四年までの期間に於て大正十年が最多いことから考へれば, 此の移動平均の變動の主たる原因は事業界の景況に基くもので, 統計の正確の度の差異は大した影響が無いものと推定される。(6) 故に慣行の方法によつて計算した消費量の趨勢は大體に於て消費量の眞の趨勢を示すものと認められる。(7) 主要植物性農産物の一人當り食用消費量の中に含まるゝカロリー價及び乾物量は明治三十九年以降大正十年まで増加し, 其の後減少して居る