Assessing risk maps of deforestation to the Brazilian Amazon using LuccME framework

Currently Amazon land use/cover changes are closely related to its impact on regional policies. These policies can be based on deforestation data resulting from land cover models, which may be based on on empirical analysis of potential factors determining its patterns and processes. However, when only data from total deforestation are shown, it can cause misinterpretation of the recently cleared areas, inducing poor decisionmaking. In the present study were constructed deforestation risk maps of Brazilian Amazon from the simulations results obtained by a regional scale model for the Brazilian Amazon called LuccME / BRAmazonia. This model was built using a modeling framework developed by CCST / INPE, which allows to build integrated models that combine different modules of demand, transition potential and land use/cover changes allocation. We made simulations with two different demand scenarios (Baseline and carbon Emission Reduction Target scenario) for 2020, and the second one was chosen to create the risk map. This map represents the difference between foreseen deforestation in 2020 and actual deforestation in 2006. Thus, it was possible to find most susceptible areas to deforestation in coming years.Pages: 6042-604