Mapping genome variation of SARS-CoV-2 worldwide highlights the impact of COVID-19 super-spreaders

The human pathogen severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is responsible for the major pandemic of the twenty-first century. We analyzed more than 4700 SARS-CoV-2 genomes and associated metadata retrieved from public repositories. SARS-CoV-2 sequences have a high sequence identity (>99.9%), which drops to >96% when compared to bat coronavirus genome. We built a mutation-annotated reference SARS-CoV-2 phylogeny with two main macro-haplogroups, A and B, both of Asian origin, and more than 160 sub-branches representing virus strains of variable geographical origins worldwide, revealing a rather uniform mutation occurrence along branches that could have implications for diagnostics and the design of future vaccines. Identification of the root of SARS-CoV-2 genomes is not without problems, owing to conflicting interpretations derived from either using the bat coronavirus genomes as an outgroup or relying on the sampling chronology of the SARS-CoV-2 genomes and TMRCA estimates; however, the overall scenario favors haplogroup A as the ancestral node. Phylogenetic analysis indicates a TMRCA for SARS-CoV-2 genomes dating to November 12, 2019, thus matching epidemiological records. Sub-haplogroup A2 most likely originated in Europe from an Asian ancestor and gave rise to subclade A2a, which represents the major non-Asian outbreak, especially in Africa and Europe. Multiple founder effect episodes, most likely associated with super-spreader hosts, might explain COVID-19 pandemic to a large extentThis study received support from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III: project GePEM (Instituto de Salud Carlos III(ISCIII)/PI16/01478/ Cofinanciado FEDER), DIAVIR (Instituto de Salud Carlos III(ISCIII)/DTS19/00049/Cofinanciado FEDER; Proyecto de Desarrollo Tecnológico en Salud) and Resvi-Omics (Instituto de Salud Carlos III(ISCIII)/PI19/01039/Cofinanciado FEDER) and project BI-BACVIR (PRIS-3; Agencia de Conocimiento en Salud (ACIS)—Servicio Gallego de Salud (SERGAS)—Xunta de Galicia; Spain) given to A.S.; and projects ReSVinext (Instituto de Salud Carlos III(ISCIII)/PI16/01569/Cofinanciado FEDER), and Enterogen (Instituto de Salud Carlos III(ISCIII)/ PI19/01090/ Cofinanciado FEDER) given to F.M.-TS