What will drive the expansion or contraction of agroforestry systems in Central America in the next decades ?

International audienceAgroforestry systems, such as shaded coffee, multi-strata cacao, and the diverse use of trees in cattle ranching, have played prominent economic and biophysical roles throughout Central America. Global, regional and local changes are impacting or will probably impact performance of these systems and, hence, their expansion or contraction at the landscape or farm levels. We used a participatory prospective process, adapted from the Delphi method, to analyse the perceptions and appreciations of stakeholders and experts in the areas of coffee-shaded, silvopastoral and multi-strata cacao systems in the region. Iterative interviews and focus groups concentrated on the stakeholders¿ and experts¿ identification of the principal factors driving change in agroforestry systems and their appreciation of the influence these will have on the systems in the future. Political, economic, biophysical, and sociocultural factors were identified as the main drivers of change. Political drivers included, but were not limited to, bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements as well as government programmes related to food security and biofuel production, aiming at reduced dependence on imports of basic grains and fossil fuels, respectively. Predominant economic or market drivers included price trends of major agroforestry crops or products, such as coffee, cacao, beef and dairy products, as well as opportunity costs of their production in view of increasing prices of land, fertilizers and basic grains. Climate change figured prominently as an important biophysical factor given its anticipated impact on which plants can be grown, the incidence of pests and diseases, as well as changes in soil characteristics. Among the sociocultural factors, demographic changes, rural-urban migration and alternative aspirations of the younger generation, were identified as relevant drivers. We conclude that depending on different factor combinations certain agroforestry systems in given regions are likely to expand while others are likely to contract