Understanding mechanisms for trends in Sahelian squall lines: roles of thermodynamics and shear

Squall lines dominate rainfall in the West African Sahel, and evidence suggests they have increased in intensity over recent decades. Stronger wind shear may be a key driver of this trend and could continue to strengthen with climate change. However, global numerical models struggle to capture the role of shear for organised convection, making predictions of changing rainfall intensities in the Sahel uncertain. To investigate the impact of recent and possible future environmental changes, and to isolate thermodynamic effects from shear effects, idealised squall line simulations were initialised with a profile representative of the present day: this profile was then modified using trends from reanalyses and climate projections. Increased shear led to increased storm intensity and rainfall, but the effects of the thermodynamic changes dominated the effects from shear. Simulations initiated with future profiles produced shorter‐lived storms, likely due to increased convective inhibition and the absence of large‐scale convergence or synoptic variability in the idealised model. A theoretical model based on the relative inflow of convectively unstable air and moisture was found to predict bulk characteristics of the storms accurately, including mean rain rates and area‐averaged maximum vertical velocities, explaining the role of shear. However, the model is not a prognostic tool as rainfall is dependent on the storm speed, which remains a free parameter. The study shows the importance of shear to long‐term rainfall trends and highlights the need for climate models to include effects of shear to capture changes in extreme rainfall