Forecasting carrier air-wing operational availability with event step simulation

This thesis develops an event step simulation that models the Operational Availability (Ao) of carrier aircraft based on the supply and maintenance of Weapon Replaceable Assemblies (WRAs). It verifies that WRA allowances, developed by the Aviation Readiness Requirements oriented to WRAs (ARROWs) model, achieve a target level of Ao given stated assumptions. It expands on ARROWs by characterizing not just the expected value of Ao but also its variability and probability distribution function. The simulation is expanded to include a variety of factors not considered by ARROWs. Examples of these factors include actual flight schedules, variable and prioritized requisitioning and repair, and cannibalization. The impact of these factors on the distribution of Ao is quantified. Simultaneous examination of all factors reveals that the full simulation predicts actual Ao approximately as well as ARROWs. In general, the full simulation overestimates Ao, and ARROWs underestimates Aohttp://www.archive.org/details/forecastingcarri00pattLieutenant Commander, Supply Corps, United States NavyApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited