CHANGE OF SOCIAL DEMOGRAPHICAL STRUCTURES IN LITHUANIAN RURAL AREAS IN 1989 – 2004

According to provisional data, as of 1 June 2003, there were 279 thous. farms producing agricultural products (further – farms), whose land property consisted of one hectare of agricultural land or more, or whose agricultural land though being less than one hectare, gave income from agricultural products sales no less than forty minimum standards of living. Those farms had 2939 thous. ha land, of which 2542 thous. ha were agricultural land. On the average one farm had 10.6 ha of land, of which 9.1 were agricultural land. The average size of the farm in Lithuania is equal of a half average size of the farm in the EU as well as it is equal of the average farm size in Portugal. Some economic and social indices. The strategical plans of agriculture forecast two trends of farms development: specialized competitive farms, producing traditional products and supplying them to processing and trading companies; farms engaged in untraditional activity and producing ecological products, which realize their produce in market niches. Smaller cooperative farms will develop along with the large commodity production farms. The period of demographic transition ended in the 70ties when stabilization of demographic processes set in. Since 1989 till 2005 the rural population had reduced from 1188.0 to 1145.2 thou, i.e., only by 3.6. These were the lowest rates of rural population reduction in the second half of the 20th century. The recent stabilization of rural population is predetermined by other migration trends than in the Soviet years. The transformation of economic structures and forms of property under the present conditions of urbanization is responsible for the migration equilibrium between rural and urban areas. Since 1992 the migration neto has even been positive (except 1998 and 1999 when the value was slightly negative). There is a question whether this is a phenomenon of suburbanization characteristic of developed countries, an outcome of land privatization or escape from cities due to especially low living standards. Moreover the abolition of compulsory permanent residence registration seeking a job has reduced the accuracy of records and the statistical data lack reliability necessary for comparison (Stankūnienė, 1995). Territorial analysis of the natural increment and old age index. Analysis of the natural increment (NI) in the rural areas in 1990–2003 revealed its spatial and territorial variations. There is a clear general trend of depopulation in the last years of investigation. It includes not only the eastern regions of Lithuania but also its western municipalities which for a long time have preserved positive values of NI. The aging rates of rural population were predetermined by migration processes in the past and are predetermined by NI at present. The age structure of population is changing in favour of the portion of aged people. The senility ratio (Rs) in combination with the NI is used in territorial evaluation of depopulation processes in the Lithuanian rural areas. This ratio shows the number of persons aged 60 years and older per one hundred children aged 0–14. The virtual changes of the network of rural settlements that occurred in the Soviet years were predetermined by migration, extinction of individual home-steads and other specific regional processes. The specific regional processes depended on the following circumstances: - Uneven size of rural settlements. The smaller the settlements the denser is their network and the smaller the population (e.g., in the east Lithuania). On the other hand the sparser networks of large settlements were more resistant to social–economic changes and for a longer time preserved their structures (e.g., in the West Lithuania); - Different number of individual home-steads and their liquidation intensity; - Different regional demographic processes (especially the differences in the NI and migration saldo). From 1989 to 2001 the networks of rural settlements and the portion of rural population have not actually changed notwithstanding the reverse agrarian reform toward privatization and restoration of individual home-steads. At this point it is expedient to analyse the recent characteristics of the Lithuanian rural settlements discovered during the population census of 2001. The recent system of Lithuanian rural settlements included a great number (92.2) of small villages (up to 100 residents) accommodating only 28.3 of the rural population. The average settlements (100–500) (8.2) accommodated 39.9 of the rural population and even one third of rural population (31.8) resided in 386 large settlements (>500). The recent population per one rural settlement in 2001 was 62.3 persons. The total of rural settlements in Lithuania was 21825 including 3364 deserted villages. The average size of villages was marked by high territorial variability. In some settlements of the northeastern municipalities the average village population was up to 30 people (Zarasai –22, Molėtai – 23, Ignalina – 25, Švenčionys – 28). On the other hand the West Lithuanian rural settlements were by 4–6 times larger. E.g., the average population in the rural settlements of Kretinga municipality was 128 people, Mažeikiai – 114, Šilutė – 110, Plungė –105, Skuodas – 104. The average population of rural settlements in the Marijamolė municipality was 140 people and in the suburban municipality of Kaunas – even 180 people per settlement.Švietimo akademijaVytauto Didžiojo universiteta